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一 |       日前,经国务院批复同意印发的《扩大消费“十五五”规划》提出,要“坚持扩大内需这个战略基点”“更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用”,这表明消费作为国民经济基础、推动经济增长重要引擎的作用更加突出,也反映出当前我国经济增长动力机制从投资和出口驱动向内需消费主导的深刻转型。  对消费的重视有着深刻的宏观背景与现实紧迫性。    Russia is represented by a diplomatic delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to Lyudmila Vorobieva, Russia’s ambassador to the Southeast Asian nation, so far Indonesia has been successful in creating a platform for inclusive dialogue within the G20.,Sputnik: There have been calls from the West to ban Russia from the G20 because of Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine, but Indonesian officials have underlined that Russia is still welcome to participate in the Group of Twenty meetings, which have been going on since the beginning of the year, and the summit scheduled for November. How important is the G20 for Indonesia, and what is the atmosphere like at the meetings?,Lyudmila Vorobieva: Of course, the G20 presidency is important for Indonesia as it's raising the profile of Indonesia, which actually is one of the leading countries in the Muslim world, and a former APEC leader. And now Indonesia is chairing the G20. And it's very important that Indonesia is making the voice of developing countries heard in the G20, and in the world, and representing the interests of the developing countries. And from the very beginning, our country has supported the Indonesian G20 presidency and the priorities that have been identified by Indonesia, which are very relevant to the global economic and financial situation. We appreciate the position of the Indonesian government that it is a forum that should be inclusive and that should concentrate on the economic and financial agenda and not drag in political issues that are divisive. So far the Indonesian presidency has been successful. There have been a lot of meetings already in different areas and Russia has been participating actively in these meetings, and that's our intention so far.,Sputnik: Moscow is very far away from Jakarta, but there are at least a few local NGOs that are friendly towards Russia. Some of them, such as the Gagarin Regiment and the Asian African Youth Government, openly express support for Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. Why is that?,Lyudmila Vorobieva: What we see here in Indonesia is that according to the polls, 80% of the population of Indonesia support Russia. There is a trend in the social media that people use “ura” (Russian war cry – Sputnik Ed.) to express their support for Russia. There are several reasons for that. First of all, of course, there are some anti-Western feelings, and anti-colonial feelings as well. The colonial past of Indonesia is still quite fresh in the memory of people and the atrocities committed by the Dutch colonizers are also quite fresh in the memories and in the hearts of Indonesian people. The second reason, I would say, is the personal popularity of our president here. President Putin is a leader that many Indonesians admire and would like to see him visiting Indonesia in the near future. And the third reason, I would say, is that Indonesians are aware that Russia has a big Muslim population, which are not immigrants - they are people who have been living in Russia for centuries, and they support the policy of President Putin. So, the combination of these reasons influenced the feelings of Indonesians towards Russia, and towards what we are doing in Ukraine.,Sputnik: Indonesia is a nation that has chosen an independent approach to the issue of sanctioning Russia by refusing to follow orders from Western countries. What are the areas in which Moscow and Jakarta cooperate economically, and which projects might we see developing in the near future?,Lyudmila Vorobieva: Last year, we saw more than 40% growth in trade turnover between Russia and Indonesia. And this year the trend is also very positive, with growth of more than 60%. Of course, it is not enough, we can do much more. But if the trend continues, we will reach five billion US dollars in trade turnover by the end of this year. This target was set by our presidents when they met in Sochi in 2016. We have joint investment projects. We can do much more, but that has been successfully going on. One of the projects is the construction of an oil refinery in Java, exploration and exploitation of oil and gas fields. There are success stories, such as an IT company that operates online service called Taxi Maxim in Indonesia, covering more than 60 cities in Indonesia. We are also discussing with our Indonesian partners more projects in energy, in shipbuilding, aircraft building, IT, pharmaceuticals, health care, and many others.,Indonesian NGO Head Backs Russia’s G20 Participation, President Putin’s Attendance at Bali Summit28 May, 09:03 GMT,Sputnik: At the end of June, when Indonesian leader Joko Widodo visited Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that there is a possibility of Indonesia developing relations with the Eurasian Economic Union – an economic bloc which consists of Russia, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and several other nations which represent Europe and Asia. Are there any concrete details on how Jakarta reacted to this proposal?,Lyudmila Vorobieva: Well, absolutely. It's a process that has already been going on. In 2018, the Indonesian government signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Eurasian Commission on cooperation. We established a working group to explore the possibility of entering negotiations on a free trade agreement. The result was positive and we hope that by the end of the year we will start the negotiation process on establishing a free trade zone between the Eurasian Economic Union and Indonesia.。

二 | 当前全球贸易保护主义抬头,外需不确定性明显增加,依靠外部市场拉动增长的空间受到挤压,必须立足国内需求掌握发展主动权。我国已进入工业化、城镇化中后期,大规模基建投资边际效用递减,而居民消费率较发达经济体仍有差距,消费潜力尚未充分释放。数据显示,“十四五”时期最终消费支出对经济增长的平均贡献率达58.8%,2025年社会消费品零售总额已突破50万亿元,消费的基础性地位已具现实支撑,但仍面临供强需弱、社保预期不稳等制约,需在“十五五”时期通过专项规划系统破局。  《规划》提出,到2030年社会消费品零售总额达到60万亿元左右,居民消费率明显提高,消费对经济增长的拉动作用进一步增强,以量化目标锚定消费的市场底盘。在任务层面,首次将促进服务消费提质惠民列为六大重点任务之首,聚焦养老、托育、文旅、健康等短板领域,顺应消费结构从商品为主向商品服务并重升级的规律;同时围绕提升消费能力、优化消费环境、完善制度机制等维度部署28条举措,包括清理汽车、住房等领域不合理限制、落实带薪休假、健全社保兜底等,构建起“增收—保障—供给—制度”的长效机制。《规划》设置9个专栏细化落地,标志着消费基础性作用有了实实在在的抓手。  超大规模市场是我国经济发展的重要优势。更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用,关键在于跳出短期思维,打好需求侧增收减负与供给侧提质适配的组合拳。在需求侧,要夯实居民消费能力根基,推动居民收入增长与经济增长同步,健全工资合理增长机制,增加财产性收入渠道,同时通过优化教育、医疗、养老等公共服务供给降低预防性储蓄动机,让居民能消费、敢消费。在供给侧,要以服务消费扩容和业态创新匹配升级需求,推动“人工智能+消费”、绿色消费等新场景供给,以高标准质量体系倒逼商品服务升级,解决供需错配导致的消费外流与意愿不足。在制度侧,需加快清理抑制消费的不合理限制,完善财政金融协同支持机制,落实休假制度保障消费时间,推动消费与投资良性互动,使有效投资更多投向消费基础设施与民生短板。  让消费真正发挥作用,考验的是宏观政策的定力与耐心。《规划》从短期刺激托底转向深耕收入分配、社会保障与制度环境,旨在换取经济长周期的稳步增长。随着《规划》的深入实施,一个供需互促、城乡互补、内外联通的强大国内市场必将加速形成,为中国式现代化注入源源不断的内生动力。(本文来源:经济日报 作者:金观平)。

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